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An Individual-Based Spatial Epidemiological Model for the Spread of Plant Diseases

Authors: Martina Cendoya, Ana Navarro-Quiles, Antonio López-Quílez, Antonio Vicent & David Conesa
Date Published: 23/02/2024
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13253-024-00604-2
Repository link: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11939/8813

Abstract

In the study of plant disease epidemics, the state of each individual in the population and their spatial location should be considered when modeling disease spread. We present a model to describe the spread of plant diseases, where the infection of a susceptible individual depends on the transmission rate of infected individuals and the spatial correlation. This latter is introduced through the Matérn correlation function, accounting for spatial dependence based on distance. Almond leaf scorch disease, caused by the bacterium Xylella fastidiosa, was used as a case study to test the behavior of the model parameters and the variability due to the characteristics and location of initial disease introduction using a proposed simulation algorithm. The greatest variability in the results depended on the range parameter of the Matérn correlation, i.e., the distance at which two observations can be considered spatially uncorrelated, and the initial introduction. The spatial distribution of individuals also had a strong influence on disease spread, highlighting that areas without trees acted as barriers when their extent was greater than the range parameter. It should be stressed that this individual-based model can be applied to other plant diseases, adapting the parameter values to their particular epidemiological characteristics.

Modeling the accuracy of Xylella fastidiosa molecular diagnostic tests in naturally-infected almond tree samples

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Date: 19/02/25

Xylella fastidiosa (Xf) is a quarantine plant pathogen in the European Union, recognized as a high-priority pest due to its devastating cultural and economic impact on crops, ornamental plants, and landscape vegetation. The development and implementation of reliable,...

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Date: 27/01/25

Xylella fastidiosa is a xylem-limited plant pathogenic bacterium that is a menace to the agriculture worldwide, threating economically relevant crops such as almond. The pathogen presents a dual lifestyle in the plant xylem, consisting of sessile microbial aggregates...

Naked-Eye Molecular Testing for the Detection of Xylella fastidiosa in Mallorca (Balearic Island) Almond Orchards by Colorimetric LAMP

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Date: 13/01/25

Xylella fastidiosa (Xf) is a quarantine pathogen heavily affecting economically important crops worldwide. Different sequence types (STs) belonging to Xf subspecies are present in various areas of Spain, including the Balearic Islands, and cause the...